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Bill Ackman said in a Bloomberg podcast he expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates soon. He said the US economy risks a sharp downturn if the Fed doesn't cut interest rates soon. AdvertisementBill Ackman expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates as early as the first quarter of next year. The Fed needs to cut interest rates soon to avoid a sharp downturn in the US economy, the billionaire investor said on Bloomberg's "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations." The Fed has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022 in an effort to cool soaring inflation.
Persons: Bill Ackman, , David Rubenstein, That's, Ackman, Rubenstein, There's Organizations: Bloomberg, US Federal Reserve, Service, Carlyle Group, Deutsche Bank, European Central Bank, UBS Locations: Israel, Swiss
COVID), and active funds are hugging their benchmarks," Subramanian wrote in a note about her 2024 outlook. "We're bullish not because we expect the Fed to cut, but because of what the Fed has accomplished," Subramanian wrote. BMO Capital MarketsBofA analysts are calling for slower inflation, better profit margins, and improved efficiency, Subramanian wrote. BMO is less optimistic about energy stocks since they've lagged behind oil prices in the last year. Consumer discretionary is a strong bet if interest rate hikes are over and consumers keep spending, Subramanian wrote.
Persons: Brian Belski, Belski, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, Bank of America BMO's Belski, he's, boomers, BofA Organizations: Bank of America, BMO Capital Markets, Business, BMO, Federal Reserve, " Bank of, Energy, BMO isn't Locations: Ukraine, Israel
There are now more central banks cutting rates than those hiking rates, per a Deutsche Bank analysis. For the first time since January 2021, there are more central banks cutting rates than those hiking them, according to an analysis by Jim Reid, a research strategist at Deutsche Bank, MarketWatch reported on Tuesday. The trend started last month, with 10 central banks cutting rates — outnumbering those that hiked rates in the same time period, according to Reid's analysis of 81 central banks around the world. The trend continued this month with five central banks — including include those in Brazil and Peru — cutting rates so far. AdvertisementWhile major central banks like the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are keeping rates steady right now, there are bets that they, too, will start to hike rates in the months ahead.
Persons: , Jim Reid, Reid, That's Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Service, MarketWatch, US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, UBS Locations: Brazil, Peru, Swiss
Argentina's new president Javier Milei wants to adopt the US dollar to tame sky-high inflation. There's a major problem with his plan to revive the ailing South American economy. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementRight-wing economist Javier Milei won Argentina's presidential runoff Sunday – and that means the country could soon ditch the peso for the US dollar. Under the president-elect's plan, the government would scrap the peso and replace it with the dollar.
Persons: Javier Milei, doesn't, , Milei, Mary, Read, John Hopkins, Steve Hanke, Guillermo Ortiz, Nora Mazzini, Lucila Bonilla Organizations: Service, Central Bank of, US Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund, Bank, Reuters, Bloomberg, Bank of Mexico, Economics, Oxford Economics Locations: Central Bank of Argentina, Ecuador, El, Panama, Argentina, Mar del Plata, Argentine
Can Argentina really move from the peso to the dollar?
  + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
2 economy and ditch its peso currency in favor of the US dollar. Milei must tackle inflation above 140%, a shortfall in foreign currency reserves and the prospect of another painful recession. Argentina’s financial markets are closed Monday for a local holiday, but the peso weakened slightly in partial trade to stand at around 353.58 to the US dollar. Bruno Gennari, Argentina expert at fixed income broker dealer KNG Securities, said the peso was trading at $1,009 versus the dollar on crypto exchanges Monday, considerably weaker than the $869 and $975 rates seen on Friday. Dollarization means Argentina would give up the peso and use the US dollar as its currency, effectively wresting control of monetary policy from the country’s central bank and handing it to the US Federal Reserve.
Persons: London CNN — Javier Milei, Sergio Massa, Milei, ” —, , ” Milei, , , Bruno Gennari, Javier Milei, Natacha, dollarization, ” William Jackson, “ It’s, Thierry Larose, ” Larose, Kristalina Georgieva, Jackson, — Valentina Gonzalez, Stefano Pozzebon, Olesya Dmitracova Organizations: London CNN, Libertad Avanza, Peronist, , ” Financial, Argentine, State, Banco, Grupo Financiero Galicia, KNG Securities, US Federal Reserve, AP, Capital Economics, Vontobel, Management, CNN, Monetary Fund, Bank, IMF, Reuters Locations: Argentina, New York, Brazil, Mexico, Dollarization, Argentina’s, Zurich, dollarization, Washington, DC, Argentine
To fix the problem, Argentina should abandon the peso and adopt the dollar, whose value is set by the US Federal Reserve and cannot be printed at will. Massa has criticized the plan for dollarization as a surrender of national sovereignty and attempted to show that the government’s current actions are already paying dividends. Other mainstream politicians, including former the President Mauricio Macri and another former election candidate, Patricia Bullrich, have endorsed Milei despite sharing some reservations on dollarization. ET) and the vote count is expected to be quick – barring any unforeseen problems or objections, that is. Milei appeared to question the results of the first round of voting in October, although his party did not formally appeal.
Persons: Argentina’s, Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Milei, Massa, dollarization, Pope Francis, , Satan ”, Francis, Tucker Carlson, Milton Friedman, Argentinians, Mauricio Macri, Patricia Bullrich, Brazil’s Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Colombia’s Gustavo Petro, Spain’s José Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, Jair Bolsonaro, Mario Vargas Llosa, Mariano Rajoy, Donald Trump Organizations: CNN, Massa, Union por la Patria, Union, La Libertad, US Federal Reserve, Cato Institute Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, South America, Latin America, Ecuador, El Salvador, US, Argentina’s, Peruvian, Spanish
Foreign exchange funds are headed for an annual return of around 7%, according to Bloomberg. AdvertisementAdvertisementCurrency investors are seeing big returns this year as differences in interest rates across the top 10 global economies are at their widest since 2008. Foreign exchange funds are looking at an annual return of around 7%, according to data from BarclayHedge cited by Bloomberg. Currency carry trades are one of the most popular trades in the foreign exchange market, but they have been quaking as returns have become harder to maintain. Many foreign exchange funds have closed over the years, unable to defend paltry growth.
Persons: Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Nomura's Group, US Federal, Bank of Japan
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon suspects the Fed may not be done hiking rates, per Yahoo. On Wednesday, the Fed said it would hold federal funds at rates steady in the 5.25% to 5.5% range. Dimon said the Fed may still hike rates by 0.25 percentage point to 0.75 percentage point. "I think they're right to pause here and see what happens," Dimon told Yahoo Finance Live just hours after the central bank's decision. On Wednesday, the Fed said it would hold the federal funds rate steady in the 5.25% to 5.5% range.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Dimon, , JPMorgan Chase Organizations: JPMorgan, Yahoo, Service, Federal Reserve, Yahoo Finance, Fed
UK's household wealth dropped due to rising interest rates, with regions like Scotland hit hardest. The US faces a similar risk with many Americans' wealth tied up in home equity and retirement accounts. Decline in UK household wealth since the start of 2022. Scotland, Wales, and the North of England had the biggest drops of 24% to 26% in total household wealth. Similar factors are seen in the USThe factors leading to declining household wealth in the UK cast a long shadow over the US.
Persons: , Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, Daniel Bustamante, boomers Organizations: Service, Bank of England, Foundation, Federal Reserve's Survey, Consumer Finances, Treasury, Brigade, Bustamante, Co Locations: Scotland, Wales, England, East, North
London CNN —Shares in Deutsche Bank surged nearly 7% Wednesday after it said strong earnings meant it could pay out more cash to shareholders over the next two years than previously anticipated. The bank said it expected to buy back more of its shares — a move which typically juices a company’s stock price — next year. It marks a striking turnaround for the bank following years of scandal, mass layoffs and regulatory fines that have weighed on its reputation, and its stock price. Shares have nearly doubled since hitting a record low in March 2020 but have still cratered 67% over the past decade. The Fed found that Deutsche Bank had made insufficient progress since 2018 to tighten its anti-money laundering controls, among other failures.
Persons: Organizations: London CNN —, Deutsche Bank, DB, , US Federal Reserve Locations:
For years, Argentinians have preferred to pay for many goods and services in greenbacks, rather than with their own collapsing currency, as part of an informal “blue dollar” currency market. To dollarize its economy, Argentina would need to exchange all pesos held by its people and businesses for US dollars, and assign a dollar value to all of its assets and contracts. The Fed would continue to set the cost of borrowing based on the needs of the US economy, not Argentina’s. Practical headacheThere’s another significant snag in Milei’s plan: Argentina doesn’t have enough dollars to ditch the peso. “People would need to take wheelbarrows of cash to convert to dollars,” Sabatini said.
Persons: Javier Milei, Sergio Massa, Argentina’s, JP Morgan, Argentinians, Milei, Natacha, Matias Baglietto, Reuters “ That’s, ” Christopher Sabatini, Kimberley Sperrfechter, ” Sperrfechter, It’s, ” Sabatini, Luis Robayo, Sabatini, Organizations: London CNN, National Institute of Statistics, Argentina’s, US Federal Reserve, Economic, Reuters, America, Chatham House, CNN, Capital Economics, International Monetary Fund, Getty, IMF Locations: Argentina, greenbacks, Washington, El Salvador, Panama, Ecuador, United States, Buenos Aires, AFP
The impact on oil prices would be enormous with one prediction of $150 per barrel. A surge in oil prices could undo the fight against inflation and cause prices to soar again. International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva expressed concern on Thursday over how global oil markets would be impacted by the war. If that were to happen, they predict that oil prices would skyrocket more than 70% to $150 per barrel from just under $90 we have now. An estimated 20-30% of global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is controlled by Iran.
Persons: , Kristalina Georgieva, Steven Mnuchin, That's, Mnuchin, Mustafa Hassona, there's, Jerome Powell, Liu Jie Organizations: Service, Hamas, Monetary Fund, Bloomberg Economics, Bloomberg, US, Fox Business, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Biden, US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Strategic Petroleum Reserve Locations: Israel, Iran, Hormuz, Iraq, Kuwait, Abu Nasr, Gaza City, Ukraine, Washington ,, Xinhua
CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineInvestors shrugged off Fed minutes that tilted hawkish and a hotter-than-expected PPI report to give markets a fourth consecutive winning session. Unfortunately, September's PPI report came in surprisingly hot. It's true the PPI report focuses on producer prices, while the Fed tends to scrutinize the consumer side of the equation more. Investors could be feeling defiant — or wanting to seize the opportunity to snap up stocks at relatively cheaper prices — after September's stocks slump.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Ryan Collerd, Derek Schug, weren't fazed, Treasurys Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, PPI, Fed, CPI, today's, Kestra Investment Management, Dow Jones, Nasdaq Locations: York , Pennsylvania
Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, arrives to a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, March 22, 2023. Federal Reserve officials at their September meeting differed on whether any additional interest rate increases would be needed, though the balance indicated that one more hike would be likely, minutes released Wednesday showed. Another point of complete agreement was the belief "that policy should remain restrictive for some time until the Committee is confident that inflation is moving down sustainably toward its objective." However, in the dot plot of individual members' expectations, some two-thirds of the committee indicated that one more increase would be needed before the end of the year. Since the September meeting, the 10-year Treasury note yield has risen about a quarter percentage point, in effect pricing in the rate increase policymakers indicated then.
Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Market, Federal, Market Committee Locations: Washington , DC
London CNN —Claudia Goldin, a professor at Harvard University, was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics Monday for her research into women’s income and employment. Jakob Svensson, chair of the committee for the prize in economic sciences, added: “Understanding women’s role in the labor market is important for society. Thanks to Claudia Goldin’s groundbreaking research we now know much more about the underlying factors and which barriers may need to be addressed in the future.”Claudia Goldin Harvard UniversityGoldin was born in 1946 in New York. She is the author of several books and is best-known for her work on the history of women in the US economy. The economics prize is officially known as the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.
Persons: London CNN — Claudia Goldin, Goldin, , Jakob Svensson, Claudia Goldin’s, ” Claudia Goldin Harvard, ” Claudia Goldin Harvard University Goldin, Henry Lee, Alfred Nobel, Ben Bernanke, Douglas Diamond, Philip Dybvig Organizations: London CNN, Harvard University, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, ” Claudia Goldin Harvard University, National Bureau of Economic Research, Sveriges, Economic Sciences, Federal Locations: New York, United States, Swedish
Bank of America charted the historical path of interest rates last week. Central banks have lifted borrowing costs away from "5,000-year lows" over the past year, strategists said. AdvertisementAdvertisementJust like the men of TikTok, Bank of America strategists have been thinking a lot about the Roman Empire. For reasons unknown, the bank decided to chart five millennia's worth of interest rates in a recent research note. AdvertisementAdvertisementNeedless to say, investors can probably take the chart with a grain of salt – but the strategists probably aren't being facetious when they say there are gloomy times ahead.
Persons: , Sidney Homer, Richard Sylla's, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, he's Organizations: of America, Service, Bank of America, Federal, of, Street Locations: TikTok, Roman, Greece
Central banks around the world are raising interest rates up from 5,000-year lows, and that's ushering in the end of abnormally high returns for stocks and bonds. In the prior decade, deflation assets like bonds and tech gained about 10%, while inflation assets such as cash, commodities, and value gained 6%. Central bank policyThe backdrop to all this has been the actions taken by global central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve. But as with other dominant themes of the 2010s, the monetary excess of central bankers is set to be replaced. The combination of central banks' monetary excess and governments' fiscal excess of the last three years has pushed nominal US GDP 40% higher since its pandemic low in the fourth quarter of 2020.
Persons: , BofA, It's Organizations: Bank of America, Service, European Union, St, Bank of America US, US Federal Reserve Locations: Ukraine, Central
Morning Bid: Oil spike delivers coup de grace to dire Q3
  + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
A nighttime view of the Torrance Refinery, an oil refinery operated by PBF Energy, in Torrance, California, U.S., March 10, 2022. The U.S. Treasury completes more than $130 billion of new debt sales this week with another 7-year note auction later on Thursday. But even though the euro bounced back from 2023 lows today, there was better news on the inflation front from Europe. As China's markets headed for the Golden Week holidays next week, stocks there were in the red too - with Hong Kong's Hang Seng (.HSI) hitting its lowest for the year so far. * U.S. Treasury auctions 7-year notes, 4-week bills* U.S. corporate earnings: Nike, Accenture, CarmaxReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsEditing by Emelia Sithole-MatariseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Bing Guan, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, it's, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, Thomas Barkin, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Torrance Refinery, PBF Energy, REUTERS, Federal, U.S, Treasury, U.S . Treasury, Micron Technology, Nvidia, Kansas, Fed, Chicago Fed, Richmond Fed, Nike, Accenture, Carmax Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Torrance, Torrance , California, U.S, Washington, United States, Europe
He told CNBC in an interview the fourth quarter of this year would be the "litmus test" for his call. He added a recession typically starts two years after a rate hike cycle begins. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementVeteran economist David Rosenberg has been calling a recession for the last 18 months, and he isn't letting the current resilience in the US economy change his mind. "It hasn't materialized, dot dot dot, yet," Rosenberg told CNBC on Wednesday, in response to his bearish call.
Persons: David Rosenberg, , Rosenberg, — Squawk Organizations: CNBC, Service, Rosenberg Research, US Federal Reserve, Energy, West Texas, Brent Locations: Toronto, Saudi Arabia, Russia
New York CNN —Not even bottled ketchup is immune from the excitement of the possible romance between Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. Heinz is releasing a limited edition “Ketchup and Seemingly Ranch” sauce in celebration of the two, with its origins being extremely online. Heinz told CNN that it’s producing and releasing 100 bottles of “Ketchup and Seemingly Ranch” sauce with a chance to score one soon via its Instagram account. Heinz is releasing a condiment in honor of Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. Swift has been a boon to business and the broader economy – beyond just jersey sales and ketchup.
Persons: New York CNN —, Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce, Heinz, Swift, weren’t, , they’re, Kelce, Organizations: New, New York CNN, NFL, CNN, Variety, North, US Federal Reserve Locations: New York, Kansas City
London CNN —Central bankers have had to climb a metaphoric mountain over the past two years in the battle to control runaway inflation. The announcement came just hours after Switzerland’s central bank kept rates unchanged and a day after the US Federal Reserve did the same, holding its key lending rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. “Central banks think they have raised interest rates enough to bring inflation down to their 2% targets in a couple of years’ time,” Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, told CNN. Key interest rates are now at levels that, if “maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution” to reducing inflation to its 2% target, the central bank said. “By this time next year, we anticipate that 21 out of the world’s 30 major central banks will be cutting interest rates.”
Persons: ” Paul Dales, , Jerome Powell, Sarah Silbiger, Brent, Andrew Bailey, ” Seema Shah, , J.P, Morgan, Jennifer McKeown Organizations: London CNN —, Bank of England, US Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, CNN, European Central Bank, ECB, Federal, Washington DC, Bloomberg, Getty, European Union, EU, European Commission, Asset Management, Locations: United Kingdom, United States, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Russia
The US dollar is king again. Here’s why
  + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
London CNN —The US dollar is enjoying its longest winning streak in nearly nine years. The rally comes after months of volatility, fueled by concerns that the dollar may be losing its status as the world’s reserve currency. “Rumors of the US dollar’s demise continue to be greatly exaggerated,” James Athey, investment director at Abrdn, an asset manager, told CNN. Higher interest rates tend to boost the value of a country’s currency by attracting more foreign capital, as investors anticipate making bigger returns. “The US economy continues to surprise to the upside,” Carsten Brzeski, global head of macroeconomic research at ING, told CNN.
Persons: ” James Athey, ” Athey, ” Carsten Brzeski, ” Brzeski, Russ Mould, AJ Bell, Athanasios Vamvakidis, Sheldon Cooper, , ” Alex Cohen Organizations: London CNN, CNN, Federal Reserve, ING, US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of America Global Research, People’s Bank of Locations: Saudi Arabia, United States, China, Europe, Germany, Russia, People’s Bank of China
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Despite the (ostensibly) hawkish tone of Powell's Jackson Hole speech, markets, it seemed, seized on a tangential point and made it the whole narrative. The beauty of Powell's words is that they are open to interpretation. The drawback of Powell's words is that they are open to interpretation.
Persons: Jerome Powell, David Paul Morris, Powell, Powell's Jackson Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: Moran , Wyoming
David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Despite the (ostensibly) hawkish tone of Powell's Jackson Hole speech, markets, it seemed, seized on a tangential point and made it the whole narrative. The beauty of Powell's words is that they are open to interpretation. The drawback of Powell's words is that they are open to interpretation.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Jerome Powell, David Paul Morris, Powell, Powell's Jackson Organizations: HK, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank of Japan, US Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: Moran , Wyoming
CNN —Artificial intelligence darling Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report could be a boost or a drag on a market already mired in the summer doldrums. Nvidia reached a $1 trillion market cap in May, becoming the ninth company to achieve that milestone. Tech stocks rose on Monday, indicating optimism among investors about Nvidia’s earnings. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index on Monday gained 1.6%, marking its biggest one-day jump this month and stalling the recent sell-off in tech stocks. Tech stocks faltered somewhat on Tuesday, as weak retail earnings and elevated Treasury yields put pressure on stocks.
Persons: Jensen Huang, Phillip Toews, that’s, , , Louis Navellier, Dan Ives, Jerome Powell, Anna Bahney, Read, Clare Duffy, , X Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Nvidia, Toews Asset Management, US Federal Reserve, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, Navellier, Associates, Tech, Nasdaq, Wedbush Securities, Federal, Kansas City, Dow Jones, National Association of Realtors, NAR, Homeowners, Twitter Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Northeast, Midwest, West
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